Resources

Since antiquity, people have been asking themselves what it means to live a good life. How should I live? What constitutes a good life? What’s the role of fate? What’s the role of money? Is leading a good life a question of mindset, or is it more about reaching your goals? Is it better to actively seek happiness or to avoid unhappiness?
Each generation poses these questions anew, and somehow the answers are always fundamentally disappointing. Why? Because we’re constantly searching for a single principle, a single tenet, a single rule. Yet this holy grail–a single, simple path to happiness–doesn’t exist.

Even the best decision doesn’t yield the best outcome every time. There’s always an element of luck that you can’t control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

From his early years in the storied arbitrage department at Goldman Sachs to his current position as chairman of the executive committee of Citigroup, Robert Rubin has been a major figure at the center of the American financial system.

Rubin’s fundamental philosophy is that nothing is provably certain. Probabilistic thinking has guided his career in both business and government. We see that discipline at work in meetings with President Clinton and Hillary Clinton, Chinese premier Zhu Rongji, Alan Greenspan, Lawrence Summers, Newt Gingrich, Sanford Weill, and the late Daniel Patrick Moynihan.

Venture Capitalists at Work: How VCs Identify and Build Billion-Dollar Successes offers unparalleled insights into the funding and management of companies like YouTube, Zappos, Twitter, Starent, Facebook, and Groupon. The venture capitalists profiled among the best in the business also reveal how they identify promising markets, products, and entrepreneurs. Author Tarang Shah, a former venture capitalist himself, interviews rising VC stars, Internet and software investment pioneers, and venture investment thought leaders. You’ll learn firsthand what criteria venture capitalists use to make investments, how they structure deals, the many ways they help the companies they fund, avoidable mistakes they see all too often, the role of luck in a success, and why so many startups fail.

Active inference is a “first principles” approach to understanding behavior and the brain, framed in terms of a single imperative to minimize free energy. The book emphasizes the implications of the free energy principle for understanding how the brain works. It first introduces active inference both conceptually and formally, contextualizing it within current theories of cognition. It then provides specific examples of computational models that use active inference to explain such cognitive phenomena as perception, attention, memory, and planning.

Too many of today’s most prominent management gurus make steel-clad guarantees based on claims of irrefutable research, promising to reveal the secrets of why one company fails and another succeeds, and how you can become the latter. The Halo Effect not only identifies delusions that keep us from understanding business performance, but also suggests a more accurate way to think about leading a company.